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18:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
CoinDesk
1h
SMH 1ST
BTC 1ST
HUT 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Chip margins pressured by Chinese competition.
A Chinese AI model from Moonshot AI triggered a semiconductor selloff because the model shows price competition, meaning AI will cost less, squeezing future margins for chip companies that invested heavily in capex. Profit-taking will concentrate in memory and chip stocks as people exit levered positions.
SMH AVOID
Bitcoin cheap, Clarity Act catalyst to $100K.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at distressed prices while institutional adoption, supportive regulation, and strong underlying fundamentals continue. Retail investors should use this time to accumulate positions, as the longtail opportunity remains strong.
BTC LONG
Crypto miners pivoting to AI have upside.
Crypto mining companies that are pivoting into AI, like Hut 8 which just signed a 15-year data center lease, have significant upside potential because combining blockchain with AI creates 24/7 efficient markets.
HUT LONG
Buy Bitcoin and Ethereum on distress.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at distressed prices while institutional adoption, supportive regulation, and strong underlying fundamentals continue. Retail investors should use this time to accumulate positions, as the longtail opportunity remains strong.
ETH LONG
HIGH
17:47
Jul 20
Jul 20
Thread Guy
1h
NVDA
PUMP
ZEC
BTC
▾
HIGH
Infinite AI compute demand supports Nvidia
China's Kimi K3 model launch and subsequent GPU capacity shortages confirm insatiable demand for AI compute, ensuring capex spend on GPU providers and neocloud will remain hyper-accelerated indefinitely, directly benefiting Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
Pump.fun volumes high, token undervalued
Pump.fun's weekly DEX volumes and fee generation have remained extremely strong even as the PUMP token dropped 80%, showing a sticky, dedicated memecoin trader base that isn't going away; the token appears deeply undervalued relative to these fundamentals, and the large unlock in July was absorbed with a price increase, suggesting further unlocks may not be bearish.
PUMP LONG
Zcash has dedicated buyers, poised for mania
Zcash has cultivated a dedicated pocket of influential crypto-native buyers (Naval, Balaji, etc.) who will continue to support and discuss the coin regardless of broader market conditions, giving it an asymmetric advantage if altcoin mania returns.
ZEC LONG
Bitcoin benefits from rotation out of stocks
Bitcoin looks strong and is positioned to benefit from a rotation out of equities if stock market gains become muted, as investors seek volatility and alternative assets like crypto.
BTC LONG
HIGH
17:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
1h
AMC 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMC thriving, record quarter, no debt worries.
AMC reported the strongest quarter in its 106-year history with record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, $778 million cash, and no significant debt maturities before 2029. The movie theater business is thriving, driven by blockbusters like The Odyssey ($124M opening) and diverse studio slates. The company has survived COVID and strikes and is now focused on thriving, not just survival.
AMC LONG
HIGH
17:21
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
2h
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Technology leads on AI capex cycle.
Technology is still the easiest sector with the most opportunity to outperform, driven by strong earnings from AI-related companies and the AI ecosystem. Hyperscaler capex is very strong and feeds into multiple layers of the AI stack, including models, applications, memory, energy, and industrials, with AI requiring significant energy and industrial inputs.
XLK LONG
HIGH
16:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
3h
GOOGL FLIP
▾
MED
Organizational complexity undermines DeepMind's speed.
Google DeepMind's bigger bottleneck is organizational—multiple layers of approval and too many decision makers slow down launches, leaving Google technically competitive but often beaten to market, which poses a risk to its AI competitiveness.
GOOGL AVOID
MED
16:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
ETH 1ST
LIT
▾
HIGH
Ethereum is DeFi's secure clearing house.
Ethereum is the most secure, stable ledger for DeFi, effectively serving as the on-chain clearing house; it has operated for 10 years with no hiccups and is critical to Lighter's architecture; moving off Ethereum is not a top-100 priority, reflecting high confidence in its continued dominance.
ETH LONG
All value accrues to Lighter token.
Lighter has a unique token-centric structure where all value accrues to the token, not equity, with the team fully committed and no further equity rounds planned. The exchange is technically superior to competitors like Hyperliquid across cost, latency, verifiability, and security, uses custom ZK circuits to slash compute costs to 1%, has high-profile partnerships (Robinhood, Telegram wallet), and is launching on-chain options in Q3, positioning it to capture both retail and institutional flow.
LIT LONG
HIGH
15:51
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
3h
SMH 1ST
▾
MED
China AI fears overblown, buy hardware stocks
The recent sell-off in hardware stocks is a profit-taking rotation, not a fundamental change from Chinese AI competition. Corporate America will not adopt Chinese AI models for critical data due to trust, security, and impending regulation. Frontier models will continue to lead, and hardware demand remains strong.
SMH LONG
MED
15:51
Jul 20
Jul 20
15:25
Jul 20
Jul 20
15:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
XLY FLIP
SPY
LQD 1ST
VGK 1ST
XLK
▾
HIGH
Consumer resilience, pain trade for underweights.
Upgraded consumer discretionary from underweight. Bank earnings show broad consumer resilience, negative sentiment is rampant, and the pain trade is setting up for those who are underweight the sector.
XLY LONG
S&P 500 path to 8150.
Sees a path higher for US equities with an S&P 500 12-month target of 8150, supported by a resilient consumer. Does not expect a linear path but believes the consumer will help drive the market higher.
SPY LONG
Attractive yields, strong demand in credit.
Investment grade corporate bonds are attractive. Yields north of 5.2% are drawing 12 consecutive weeks of inflows. Supply is lumpy but deals are multiple times oversubscribed, and the overall exposure to AI capex in the index remains manageable.
LQD LONG
Europe equities benefitting from own rebuilding.
Europe offers a hedge against a potential high-correlation accident in US AI trades. Europe is building out its own AI and energy infrastructure, and Trump’s actions have forced countries to do more themselves, creating opportunities.
VGK LONG
Tech selloff is technical, fundamentals solid.
Upgraded US technology sector after selloff, as the decline was driven by profit-taking and momentum unwind rather than fundamentals. Software valuations are historically low, creating an opportunity to step into both semis and software.
XLK LONG
Grid build necessary, sector attractive.
US electricity and grid infrastructure needs to be built out regardless of how AI spending evolves. The sector has sold off and presents a bullish opportunity as grid investment is non-discretionary.
XLU LONG
Semis face risk from Chinese competition.
Growing risk that China will flood global markets with cheap compute, similar to the 2000s manufacturing shock. This could slow US AI buildout, hurting semiconductor demand and challenging the long-term outlook for picks-and-shovels AI plays.
SOC WATCH
Overweight market neutral amid high variance.
High macro and geopolitical variance demands active management. Market neutral strategies are especially valuable now because they provide uncorrelated return streams that can cut through the noise, and should be overweighted in portfolios.
Market Neutral Strategy LONG
AI spending driving revenue growth.
Alphabet is well-positioned to deliver strong earnings driven by AI. Cloud revenue growth is accelerating, backlog is growing, and search revenue benefits from Gemini. The company's compute, intelligence, and energy assets are strategic, and estimates have been raised.
GOOG LONG
HIGH
15:16
Jul 20
Jul 20
NOW
OWL 1ST
ARCC
FSK 1ST
BX 1ST
▾
MED
Short ServiceNow and Adobe on AI disruption
AI frontier models will disrupt many enterprise software companies, whose contracts will roll off and revenue growth assumptions will fail. Public software names are better than private equity holdings but are still overvalued and will fall further. Nemeth explicitly states he is bearish on ServiceNow and Adobe.
NOW AVOID
ADBE AVOID
Short Ares, Blackstone; long Blue Owl
Among publicly traded alternative asset managers, Ares Management has the biggest gap between its premium brand and reality. Blackstone is overrated because its entire business revolves around marketing rather than investment skill. Blue Owl Capital is the most underrated; despite bad public relations, its underwriting quality is stronger than the market believes.
OWL LONG
BX SHORT
ARES AVOID
Short ARCC, long FSK on discount gap
Ares Capital (ARCC) is overvalued relative to FS KKR Capital (FSK). Both BDCs hold around 60% in software loans, but ARCC has more subordinated debt and trades at a tiny discount to NAV while FSK trades at a 50% discount. The market's professional preference for ARCC is unwarranted, making ARCC a crowded long and FSK a deep-value opportunity.
ARCC AVOID
FSK LONG
MED
14:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
AIR.PA
▾
HIGH
Massive backlog and production ramp support Airbus.
Airbus sees very strong demand for its commercial aircraft, backed by a backlog of over 9,200 planes. Production is ramping up, with a 15% increase in the first half, on track toward rate 75 on the A320 family and around 870 deliveries in 2026. High oil prices further boost demand for fuel-efficient aircraft. The company has high visibility and will present aggressive delivery targets at its investor day.
AIR.PA WATCH
HIGH
14:40
Jul 20
Jul 20
14:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
SPY FLIP
Equal-weight US equities
Foreign developed equities
EEM 1ST
SYLD
▾
HIGH
Avoid US large-cap, extremely overvalued.
US large-cap stocks are extremely overvalued, with a CAPE ratio of 42 and dividend yield of 1%. Historically, no market ending a year at a CAPE of 40 has delivered above-average returns over the next decade. He expects poor returns (low single digits) over the next 5-7 years, making US large-cap market-cap-weight stocks unattractive.
SPY AVOID
Equal-weight will stomp cap-weight.
Equal-weighted US equities will significantly outperform cap-weighted indices over the next decade because cap-weighting's Achilles heel is valuation, and current extreme valuations make an equal-weight approach superior.
Equal-weight US equities LONG
Foreign developed stocks cheap, poised to rise.
Foreign developed equities are cheap, trading at low-teen valuations relative to the expensive US market. They are under-owned, performance is strong and accelerating, and FOMO is starting to build. Investors should allocate significantly to this asset class.
Foreign developed equities LONG
Emerging markets undervalued, major upside ahead.
Emerging market equities are deeply undervalued, massively under-owned by US investors despite representing over half of world GDP, and have been performing exceptionally. A FOMO-driven reallocation could push them much higher.
EEM LONG
Use shareholder yield strategy to avoid value traps.
A quantitative shareholder yield strategy—buying companies with high combined buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction, and sorting by momentum to avoid value traps—historically adds about 1% per year and has delivered exceptional results across US, foreign developed, and emerging markets.
SYLD LONG
FYLD LONG
EYLD LONG
Rotate into US small-cap value.
US small-cap value stocks are having an excellent year as value rotates within the US, and breaking the market-cap tilt by moving down in size and toward value offers attractive opportunities with low valuations (P/E of 10).
US small-cap value equities LONG
Allocate heavily to trend following strategies.
Trend following and momentum strategies are an essential diversifier that should constitute up to 50% of a portfolio. They provide protection during downturns (e.g., 2022) by shorting bonds and other assets when equities fall, and are severely under-allocated by investors.
GMO LONG
Avoid bonds, own T-bills for yield.
The entire fixed-income curve offers inadequate compensation for duration and credit risk relative to risk-free T-bills. Credit spreads are in the top decile historically and are vulnerable to blowing out. Investors should avoid aggregate bonds, corporates, and high yield, and own T-bills instead.
AGG AVOID
BIL LONG
LQD AVOID
HYG AVOID
Use VAMO for hedged value exposure.
VAMO is an ETF that buys US value stocks and dynamically hedges market exposure (0-100%) based on valuation and trend, making it ideal for investors nervous about an expensive S&P 500 while still participating in upside.
VAMO LONG
Global REITs surging, under-owned real asset.
Global REITs are having a surprisingly phenomenal year, up 12% with a value tilt, and represent an under-owned real asset class that investors should include in portfolios.
BLG LONG
Gold improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns.
Gold plays a strategic and tactical role in portfolios by improving risk-return characteristics over time and is hard to argue against as a long-term holding.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
SemiAnalysis
5h
0981.HK 1ST
▾
MED
SMIC progress makes China a fab power.
SMIC's latest DUV node, N+3, has achieved EUV-class density without EUV, demonstrating real progress. Although power and performance still lag the leading edge, this shows China is becoming a serious fab player. SMIC is being directed to license its N+2 and N+3 processes to other domestic fabs. If this learning spreads into AI accelerators and other chips, the choke point moves from a single sanctionable fab to an entire ecosystem, making China less dependent on TSMC and harder to contain. China doesn't need to beat TSMC; it only needs to be good enough to not need TSMC at all.
0981.HK LONG
MED
13:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
▾
HIGH
Samsung and SK hynix lead rebound, buy
Deleveraging, credit unwinding, and massive global semiconductor fund outflows signal a market capitulation bottom. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are now the last stand being fiercely defended by investors — they showed relative strength with green candles even as the rest of the market collapsed. The upcoming earnings reports (SK hynix final, Samsung final with guidance) will act as catalysts, and guidance will be strong. After a 35–40% correction, the stocks are deeply undervalued. Yoo maintains long-term price targets of 250,000–300,000 won for SK hynix and 30,000–35,000+ won for Samsung Electronics, and believes the trend is not over — this is a buying and holding opportunity.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold through weak KOSPI rebound for rally
The market is in the final stage of capitulation: deleveraging, dried-up volume, and pervasive fear. If the KOSPI holds above the recent low and rebounds, a strong rally to 8,000–8,300 is possible. The imminent 20-day/60-day moving average death cross is often a short-term bottom signal. Investors should not sell into a clumsy initial rebound; instead, hold until next week after earnings, because the bounce could turn into a surprisingly strong upswing. Only if the recent low is broken after a rebound should one run.
EWY LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS
005930.KS
MU
005380.KS 1ST
EWY
▾
HIGH
SK hynix near bottom, buy.
SK hynix is down about 40% from its peak, mirroring past deep corrections in market-leading stocks like NVIDIA. The stock is now near a bottom. AI-driven server DRAM demand remains strong, and the ADR is already rallying in after-hours trading. The excessive sell-off presents a buying opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
Samsung near bottom, buy the dip.
Samsung Electronics has fallen 35% from its peak, similar to past NVIDIA corrections that eventually led to new highs. The stock held the 120-day moving average and has technical support at 232,500 KRW. Earnings remain strong, and market pessimism is overdone. Selling now would be a mistake; this is a buying opportunity near the bottom.
005930.KS LONG
Micron rally can ignite memory rebound.
Micron Technology is down 32% and is crucial for global memory sentiment. A strong surge in Micron would break the negative feedback loop dragging down Korean semis. The stock is attempting to reclaim its 60-day moving average, and heavy short positioning could trigger a short-covering rally.
MU LONG
Hyundai Motor deeply undervalued, buy.
Hyundai Motor has fallen about 50% from its peak and is now extremely cheap, trading at a deep discount. The valuation is so attractive it is like a bargain sale, offering a clear buying opportunity at these levels.
005380.KS LONG
KOSPI downside limited, buy index.
KOSPI will not break 6,000; the 6,300 level is strong support and if breached will quickly recover. Foreign buying in index futures at the close signals accumulation. A technical rebound is highly likely, making the index a buy at current levels.
EWY LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
XLK 1ST
Asia Tech Sector
NVDA 1ST
▾
MED
Tech rout justified by intensified AI race
The US-China AI race has escalated to a new global level where both powers fight for partners and allies, making the recent tech sell-off in Asia and the US fully justified, not an overreaction, and pointing to further downside for tech sectors.
XLK AVOID
Asia Tech Sector AVOID
Tighter chip export controls hurt NVIDIA
The US is likely to tighten export controls on advanced chips to China after the Kimi K3 breakthrough, making it harder for NVIDIA to convince regulators to allow exports, which threatens NVIDIA's China-related revenue.
NVDA AVOID
MED
12:17
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO 1ST
CRAK 1ST
ITA 1ST
ESA 1ST
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Energy prices poised to spike higher
Diesel and jet fuel spreads are at record highs, reflecting physical market tightness and depleted inventories. With no clear de-escalation path in the US-Iran conflict, energy prices are at significant risk of moving much higher to destroy demand, tightening markets further.
BNO LONG
CRAK LONG
Super cycle in defense, aerospace, AI
A broad-based super cycle is underway in AI, defense, aerospace, and manufacturing, driven by infrastructure spending, electrification, and strong capex. The resilience is wider than most assume, supporting continued dynamism in these sectors.
ITA LONG
ESA LONG
AIQ LONG
Boeing recovering on strong demand, backlog
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production on 737 and 787 lines, with very strong market demand and record backlogs. Execution on deliveries and improving financials will support the recovery.
BA LONG
Ryanair gains as fuel costs crush rivals
Ryanair is better hedged than competitors on fuel. High oil prices will force capacity out of the market, allowing Ryanair to gain share and benefit from higher fares as weaker airlines struggle.
RYAAY LONG
Alibaba AI cheap, competitive, open-source
Alibaba's new AI model is highly competitive, claimed to be second only to Anthropic's top model, yet is open-source and up to 90% cheaper than US models. This gives Alibaba a strong position to gain adoption and threaten US dominance.
BABA LONG
Watch US AI hyperscalers, Chinese threat
Chinese AI models are closing the performance gap with US leaders quickly, while being significantly cheaper and open-source. This raises a real risk to US hyperscalers' AI market share and warrants caution on their premium valuations.
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
MSFT WATCH
HIGH
12:15
Jul 20
Jul 20
BA
▾
HIGH
Boeing turning corner, strong demand, ramping up.
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production on the 737 to 47/month with aspirations to reach 63, and the 787 to 8/month aiming for 10 later this year and higher next year. The backlog is very strong and the market is super resilient, with traffic continuing to grow and a new forecast of 44,000 airplanes needed over the next 20 years. The company is restoring trust with regulators, customers, and employees, recently regaining delegation for ticketing commercial airplanes. Financially, it plans to ramp production, improve cash flow, and pay down debt in the next couple of years, positioning for a next-generation aircraft when the market is ready. The overall execution story and strong demand environment support a bullish outlook.
BA LONG
HIGH
12:08
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
WTI
▾
MED
Escalating attacks threaten oil supply
Escalating US-Iran hostilities are reducing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks are expanding from military infrastructure to energy assets including in Kuwait. This is creating market anxiety and fears of further damage to refineries, pipelines, and oil and gas facilities, shifting focus from reopening the strait to repairing facilities, which supports higher oil prices.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
MED
12:07
Jul 20
Jul 20
WTI
▾
HIGH
Tightening Gulf supply lifts oil prices.
Persian Gulf oil exports have dropped below 50% of normal due to US-Iran escalation, supply is tightening, and prices can continue to rise while the conflict lasts.
WTI LONG
HIGH
11:31
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO FLIP
UNG 1ST
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tightening supply lifts oil prices.
Visible exports from the Persian Gulf have dropped below 50% of normal as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The direction of travel is one of tightening supply, and oil prices can continue to increase while the disruption lasts.
BNO LONG
Low storage and competition boost gas.
European natural gas storage is unlikely to reach over 70% this year, with risk of going lower. Summer demand from Asia is competing for LNG cargoes, and with winter approaching, Europe and Asia must compete to build storage, driving prices higher to curb demand.
UNG LONG
Chinese stocks cheap with tech upside.
The Chinese market is one of the few large markets that is good value, with cyclically adjusted PE well below historical norms and far below US and Europe. China also has interesting technology developments in AI, robotics, solar, and EVs, and is moving up the value chain. He has been overweight Chinese stocks for years and remains overweight.
FXI LONG
HIGH
11:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY
KOSDAQ
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Volume exhaustion signals KOSPI rebound ahead.
The KOSPI has been falling on sharply declining trading volume and value, a pattern that historically precedes a rebound. Foreigners have shifted from persistent selling to net buying in spot and futures, and overall fund flows into Korean equities are improving. Valuation is cheap relative to history, and while timing is uncertain, the market is likely to return to its fair value band, making this a holding and accumulation point for those using cash.
EWY LONG
KOSDAQ rebound may be sharper after credit flush.
KOSDAQ's credit balance has dropped much faster than KOSPI's, meaning leveraged selling pressure is largely exhausted. When the market turns up, KOSDAQ could see a lighter, sharper rebound because heavy forced selling has already occurred, though absolute credit levels remain a risk.
KOSDAQ LONG
AI model launch positive for Korean memory.
Many retail investors hold Samsung Electronics and SK hynix at average costs as high as 190,000–200,000 won for SK hynix, putting them deep underwater. This creates a risk of cascading forced selling. To reduce psychological and margin pressure, investors with high average purchase prices should consider trimming positions and re-entering later at better levels.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
11:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
8h
RYAAY
▾
HIGH
Capacity shakeout boosts low-cost Ryanair's pricing power.
European airline capacity will contract as weaker carriers fail due to the Middle East crisis and lack of Ryanair's cost base and debt-free balance sheet. This capacity shakeout, along with ongoing M&A, shifts fare risk to the upside. Ryanair's unit cost advantage is growing (nearest competitor 80% higher), and new Boeing MAX 10 aircraft deliver 20% lower fuel burn and more passengers, locking in growth to over 300 million passengers annually. Airports are offering favorable deals to Ryanair anticipating competitor exits.
RYAAY LONG
HIGH
11:13
Jul 20
Jul 20
BA 1ST
DXY 1ST
GBP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Boeing turning corner, strong business momentum.
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping production on 737 and 787 programs, with strong backlog and resilient aviation demand; President Trump's sales support has helped secure aircraft orders, and the company forecasts 44,000 new planes in 20 years.
BA LONG
Dollar benefits from oil exports, Fed hawkishness.
The US dollar is well-placed because the US is now an oil exporter, giving it an advantage over energy-importing currencies; the Fed's hawkishness is the most pronounced since 2022, with potential rate hikes providing asymmetric upside; even if oil stabilizes, the carry advantage persists.
DXY LONG
Sterling strong on growth, fiscal concerns limited.
Sterling has been resilient because UK growth is surprising to the upside and tracking better than the BOE forecast; fiscal noise from the new PM will not dominate in the interim, and the currency will trade off tangible growth data; the bullish consensus call remains intact.
GBP LONG
HIGH
11:13
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS
EWY
ORCL
005930.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
Oversold on liquidity, strong memory demand persists.
SK Hynix is deeply undervalued relative to Micron, trading at just 5-6x forward P/E even though the HBM/DDR5 memory upcycle remains intact. Supply-demand distortions from leveraged ETFs and foreign selling have created a 20%+ gap against Micron beyond common factors. The LTA contract structure supports pricing, and recent DDR5 spot price surges confirm strong server demand. Once AI capex fears ease around big tech earnings, the stock should rebound sharply.
000660.KS LONG
KOSPI's 5x P/E is absurdly cheap assuming structural cycle.
The KOSPI is trading at a trailing P/E of just 5-6x, even below the COVID-19 bottom, and its forward PEG is only 0.25 based on 10-20% earnings growth. If the current semiconductor cycle is structural rather than cyclical, this valuation is unjustifiably low. The market is pricing in a severe earnings collapse that is unlikely to happen given persistent AI-related demand and LTA contracts.
EWY LONG
Oracle overly levered, high bankruptcy risk on capex slowdown.
Oracle is the canary in the coal mine for the AI capex cycle. If the cycle cracks, Oracle's leverage makes it most vulnerable to default risk. The CDS spread for Oracle combined with other big techs is already elevated, and Oracle's standalone fundamentals could deteriorate badly in a downturn. Investors should avoid Oracle as a fragile link.
ORCL AVOID
Undervalued memory leader with HBM catalyst ahead.
Samsung Electronics has underperformed SK Hynix due to HBM qualification concerns, but its memory business is still generating massive earnings, and the stock trades near 5x P/E. The AI capex cycle and eventual HBM qualification will close the valuation gap. The LTA contract visibility and robust DDR5 demand support a recovery in the share price.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
11:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
475150.KS
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
034730.KS
▾
HIGH
Renewable energy stocks bottoming out.
Renewable energy stocks showed resilience in a falling market; SK Holdings, Hyundai Energy Solution, and SK Eternix are displaying signs of forming a bottom and attempting a trend reversal, indicating that the sector may have already priced in the worst.
475150.KS LONG
034730.KS LONG
Hyundai Energy Solution LONG
Big tech capex lifts memory stocks.
Big tech companies will increase capex by 30% or more to meet surging AI demand, confirmed in upcoming earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon). Korean memory leaders are oversold; hedge funds started buying back semi stocks last week; server DRAM spot prices remain strong (triple fixed price), disproving fears of a price collapse. The sell-off is overdone and a recovery is coming.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Foreign futures buying signals tomorrow's rebound.
Foreign investors bought over 1 trillion won of KOSPI futures near the market close, adding to 700 billion won bought last Thursday. This pattern of heavy futures buying strongly signals a short-term rebound for the KOSPI tomorrow. Nasdaq futures also turned higher after the Korean close, reinforcing the signal.
EWY LONG
US Navy orders boost shipbuilding equipment.
The US government has designated shipbuilding as a strategic project, putting initial orders worth around 3 trillion won (USD 2 billion) into motion. Korean shipbuilding equipment suppliers like Hyundai Heavy Industries Engine & Machinery, Sejin Heavy Industries, and K are direct beneficiaries of this long-cycle demand, and the stocks are already turning positive.
Hyundai Heavy Industries Engine & Machinery LONG
Sejin Heavy Industries LONG
KOSDAQ to rally in August.
By the end of July, capex uncertainty will be resolved through big tech earnings, clearing the way for an August rally. The KOSDAQ index should rise about 1,000 points from the 755 area toward the 800 level, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recovering about 15%.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Samsung Electro-Mechanics oversold bounce.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has fallen so much that the market now considers it excessively oversold; the stock is showing a rebound in after-hours trading, suggesting a near-term corrective bounce.
009150.KS LONG
Buy beaten sectors if rates fall.
Deeply beaten-down stocks in defense, shipbuilding, semiconductor equipment/materials, and biotech are poised for a sharp rebound by September. The essential precondition is that interest rates must decline, which would unlock a powerful rotation into these oversold sectors.
PKX LONG
Korea Defense sector LONG
Korea Semiconductor Equipment & Materials sector LONG
Korea Biotech Sector LONG
Avoid leveraged ETFs, speculative casino.
The proliferation of 2x leveraged ETFs has turned the Korean market into a speculative casino, trapping retail investors in extreme volatility and forcing coin-toss behavior. These instruments should be avoided until trading restrictions are imposed and market structure improves.
Korean 2x leveraged ETFs AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
EWY
▾
MED
Buy KOSPI below 6,800 on valuation
Korean stocks are set to rebound because macro conditions are improving: U.S. inflation is slowing, reducing tightening fears; the Korean won is strengthening (potentially to around 1,430 won per dollar); the Korea-U.S. interest rate gap is narrowing; and foreign equity selling is moderating. A stronger won historically pushes Korean stocks higher.
EWY LONG
MED
09:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
000660.KS
005930.KS
Korean Leveraged ETFs
▾
HIGH
Short-term bounce in semis, buy to trim.
Korean semiconductor large-caps SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have fallen sharply without any meaningful bounce, SK Hynix has formed a double bottom, foreign investors are accumulating futures and large caps, and upcoming global tech earnings could be a positive catalyst; a short-term technical rebound is highly probable, and he recommends buying in portions for the bounce while planning to trim exposure on the rebound.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Avoid leveraged ETFs in volatile markets.
Leveraged ETFs decay in volatile, sideways markets and are unsuitable for holding beyond a very short period; the current Korean market environment with low confidence and whip-saw moves makes holding them especially costly, so investors should reduce or avoid leveraged ETFs.
Korean Leveraged ETFs AVOID
HIGH
09:16
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
TSM
▾
HIGH
Oil supply disruption fears rising.
The US-Iran conflict escalation and Iran's threat to control Strait of Hormuz have caused a collapse in market sentiment that shipping will normalize, with prediction market odds dropping from 70% to 8%. The oil forward curve has moved up across the board, reflecting increasing bearishness about supply returning quickly, which is pushing Brent prices higher and edging them toward the April/May highs.
BNO LONG
TSMC aggressively expanding to capture demand.
TSMC is adding $100 billion to its Arizona investments to meet very strong multi-year demand from US customers for advanced technology. The company has technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, customer trust, and does not compete with customers, making it the first choice. Management is determined to capture all growth and leave no room for competitors, with a strong conviction in the semiconductor megatrend.
TSM LONG
HIGH
09:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
005930.KS
000660.KS
ORCL 1ST
▾
HIGH
Korean semis cheap if AI cycle structural.
The current correction in Korean semiconductor stocks (Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix) is driven by momentum overcrowding and unwinding, not a fundamental breakdown. If the AI capex cycle is structural and not a typical cyclical peak, then current valuations of around 5x P/E are unjustifiably low. The deceleration in earnings growth from extreme levels does not signify a peak under this structural view. Foreign selling is likely near exhaustion, and a recovery in the relative strength of semis vs. hyperscalers could trigger renewed foreign buying. Strong margins and AI-related demand support the case.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Oracle risky if AI capex cycle falters.
Oracle is the canary in the coal mine for an AI capex cycle crack. It is heavily leveraged, and if the AI spending cycle weakens, Oracle would be the first to face bankruptcy risk. Other hyperscalers have diversified revenue and are less vulnerable, making Oracle particularly fragile.
ORCL AVOID
HIGH
08:22
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
11h
000660.KS FLIP
SK Hynix ADR
EWY
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
SK hynix oversold by supply distortions, cheap.
SK hynix is fundamentally strong with memory prices soaring (DDR5 server contract prices 2.5x spot, rising spot prices) and robust hyperscale demand. The stock has been unduly beaten down by local supply distortions (leveraged ETFs, ADR dynamics) and negative sentiment around memory hegemony. It has underperformed Micron by 20% over two months despite similar valuation (5.8x P/E local, 7.3x ADR, in line with Micron). This supply-driven discount should reverse once big tech earnings/LTA guidance reassure the market, offering a significant rebound opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
SK Hynix ADR LONG
KOSPI must reclaim 7,000 within 3-4 weeks.
KOSPI index has broken its 20-week moving average and is at a critical juncture. If it can regain the 7,000 level within 3–4 weeks, supported by strong memory earnings and big tech guidance, the correction is normal and the uptrend can resume. Failure to recover 7,000 within about a month would signal a mid-term downtrend. The critical technical support is the prior low around 6,449.
EWY WATCH
Kimi K3 crash proves memory shortage, buy.
The Kimi K3 server crash demonstrates that advanced memory demand is robust and that there is a severe semiconductor shortage — the model could not handle user load because of insufficient server infrastructure. This confirms that memory demand will continue to grow, benefiting Korean memory leaders. The market's negative knee-jerk reaction is a misinterpretation; the event is a buying opportunity for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
08:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
196170.KQ
EWY
034020.KS FLIP
▾
MED
Shareholder return catalysts may spark rebound
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to announce stronger-than-anticipated shareholder return policies, which could lift valuations and fuel a share price rebound despite recent declines. An analyst report suggests the market is underestimating the magnitude of the coming shareholder return measures, and the CEO of SK Hynix has expressed strong confidence in future stock price recovery.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Bonus issue and KOSDAQ stay are positives
Alteogen announced a 0.3-share bonus issue and decided to remain on KOSDAQ instead of transferring to KOSPI. In a difficult market these are seen as positive catalysts because the market had previously penalized the KOSPI transfer idea, and remaining on KOSDAQ allows Alteogen to maintain its leadership position as a top-tier stock on that exchange.
196170.KQ LONG
Oversold KOSPI due for a technical rebound
The KOSPI has corrected about 30% from its peak while many stocks have halved, yet corporate fundamentals have not deteriorated to that extent. The index is now near the 120-day moving average around 6,500–6,630, and the guest expects a bounce back because historically such oversold conditions without fundamental breakdown eventually lead to a rebound, and most experts now agree the market is oversold.
EWY LONG
Nuclear energy theme breaking, avoid exposure
Korean nuclear energy stocks, which had been market leaders, are breaking down as the investment thesis unravels. In the US, nuclear stocks were crushed first because the economics are unfavorable—even operating for 60 years, nuclear power is more expensive than solar once total costs are included, and without subsidies the sector cannot survive. The same logic is now spreading to Korean names, causing sharp declines and heavy supply breakdown.
034020.KS AVOID
010120.KS AVOID
Shipbuilding and defense leadership is breaking
Shipbuilding and defense sectors, which had been leading the market for 2–4 years, are now breaking down as their long-cycle momentum fades. These previously dominant sectors are no longer reliable and are experiencing sharp corrections, signaling that the leadership rotation is under heavy pressure.
Korean shipbuilding sector AVOID
Korean defense sector AVOID
Monitor Micron for Korean semiconductor rebound signal
Micron Technology is being watched as a leading indicator for Korean semiconductor stocks. If Micron holds above its 120-day moving average or recent high, it would signal a potential turnaround for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Its price action is a key signal to monitor in the near term.
MU WATCH
Financials act as defensive in bear market
In a weak overall market, financial stocks like KB Financial are acting as typical defensive plays, rising while most other sectors fall. This defensive rotation can offer relative stability and is a characteristic behavior during a bearish phase.
105560.KS LONG
MED
07:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO
Equities
▾
HIGH
Bias is higher oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed and oil infrastructure is being targeted again, marking material escalation. The bias is clearly higher oil prices from here, though likely not reaching $120/bbl on Brent due to demand destruction, China demand loss, and alternative supply from Saudi Arabia and US exports.
BNO LONG
Worrying backdrop for equities.
Higher oil prices and wobbles in the tech trade create a very worrying backdrop for equities, negative for growth. Equities are unattractive in this environment.
Equities AVOID
HIGH
07:12
Jul 20
Jul 20
RYAAY
BABA 1ST
SMH
▾
MED
Ryanair hedged, consolidation lifts shares.
Ryanair is well-hedged on jet fuel at $67/barrel, better than competitors, and will benefit from industry consolidation and capacity reductions that drive higher fares, positioning it to gain market share as weaker airlines struggle with unhedged fuel costs.
RYAAY LONG
Alibaba AI model progress drives shares.
Alibaba's latest AI model ranks second only to Anthropic's model on a key benchmark, driving expectations for its AI capabilities and pushing the stock higher.
BABA LONG
Chinese AI models threaten chip demand.
Cheaper and more efficient Chinese AI models from companies like Moonshot AI raise questions about the sustainability of massive spending by US hyperscalers and future hardware demand, posing a risk to semiconductor stocks.
SMH WATCH
MED
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